The fourth in our series of blogs discusses the market for Original Equipment and Aftermarket brake pads.
Most cars have two brake pads and one rotor per wheel. Every time you apply the brakes, friction causes rotor and pad wear. On European cars, you can clearly see the dark wear particles on the car rims. Other regions like North America and Asia use a different brake pad formulation. These so called NAO (Non-Asbestos Organic) brake pads are less abrasive and cause less rotor wear.
New cars are fitted with brake pads that meet the high requirements of the car manufacturer for comfort, durability and most importantly performance. Developing these OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) brake pads can take up to 5 years.
When these OEM pads reach the end of their life they are replaced by after market (AM) brake pads fitted by car dealerships, independent garages and fast fitters.
There is a clear difference between these OEM and AM products, so we will take a closer look at these.
According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), in 2018 global passenger car production was 79.3 million units. On average 5% of all brakes on passenger cars are drum linings and 95% are brake pads (source IHS Markit). Drum brakes are typically used on the rear axles of smaller cars. Taking into consideration that a normal car uses eight pads in total we can calculate the total OE brake pad market:
79.3 million passenger cars (x4) require 317.2 million brakes on each wheelend. 5% of these brake systems use drum brakes which results in 301 brakes using brake pads for deceleration. Every brake is equipped with two brake pads.
This results in a total market of 600 million Original Equipment Manufacturing (OEM) brake pads based on 2018 global passenger car production.
OE brake pads were produced in 2018.
year-on-year.
Ignoring the global impact of the COVID-19 virus in 2020, the long term growth of passenger car production is around 1.5% annually (source IHS Markit), giving a similar growth of brake pad production. So by 2030 the global OE brake pad market should have passed 700 million pieces per year. This growth is mainly taking place in China, South East Asia and India.
One thing is sure: regenerative braking in hybrid and electric cars will affect the aftermarket.
Hybrid and electric cars use regenerative brake systems. Using this form of deceleration in daily traffic the traditional brakes do not need to be applied as frequently, decreasing the replacement rate. This will affect the brake pad market in the upcoming decades.
Possible other changes due to electrification might include thinner brake pads to minimize weight and improve comfort by better noise performance and the reintroduction of drum brakes on the rear axle (as already seen in the new VW ID3).
On average, the life span of a brake pad in a combustion-driven passenger car is 65,000 KM (40,000 miles). We calculate the average replacement rate of brake pads on a passenger car to be 2.3, so brake pads on a car need to be replaced between 2 and 3 times.
Regenerative braking reduces brake pad usage. That reduces wear, and so the replacement rate. Therefore, hybrid cars will on average change their brake pads once, and full electric vehicles (EV) should normally not need any replacement.
Wear isn’t the only reason why brake pads and rotors need to be replaced. Rotors and brake pads can all oxidize, causing corrosion, which in turn causes a rust layer on the surface. This can decrease performance and create stiction in the parking brake if the car is not used for a while.
The rotor and brake pads are cleaned each time the brakes are applied while driving, removing the rust from the surface. However, regenerative braking in hybrid and electric vehicles could result in more issues with corrosion. Brake pad and rotor developers are working on parts that either do not suffer from corrosion or can be cleaned effectively.
| Propulsion | Brake pad replacement rate |
| Combustion Engine | 2.3 |
| Hybrid | 1 |
| Full Electric | 0 |
According to Marklines, 1% of cars sold in 2020 will be full EVs and another 7% hybrid cars. These numbers will increase to around 20% and 30% respectively of all cars sold in 2030.
The change in propulsion won’t affect the passenger car brake pad (PCDP) aftermarket in 2020. There are an estimated 1.3 billion cars on the road today with an average lifespan of 12 years. This means that every year, 250 million cars get their brake pads replaced. If we again take 5% drum brakes into account the total aftermarket for passenger car brake pads in 2019 was almost to 1.9 billion.
The current passenger car brake pad market is around 2.5 billion pieces per year (600 million OE plus 1.9 billion aftermarket). The number of cars on the road is expected to grow to around 2 billion by 2030, mainly because of the growing number of people and economic wealth, especially in Asia.
With this global increase in car production, the OE market is expected to grow by 1.5% per year. Because the life expectancy of a car is extending, the total number of cars on the road will also grow.
By 2030 we estimate the OE market will be around 710 million pads. The AM market, however, will have declined to 1.4 billion pieces – and will continue to decline at an increasing pace – due to electrification.
We develop innovative products used in a wide range of applications, including automotive friction, urban climate adaptation, urban acoustics, gaskets and coatings.
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